Markets start Q4 with a solid week.
Non-Farm payrolls declined -33,000 in September. Why? Most likely the hurricanes.
The U3 unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% (August), down to 4.2% (September). The participation rate grew a bit from 62.9%, up to 63.1%.
The ISM Manufacturing Index’s September numbers were strong. The consensus number was 58.1, but the actual number came in at 60.8. Levels above 50 indicate expansion. A month ago, the August number was good, but the September number was the strongest since 2004.
The ISM Non-manufacturing Index also had a strong September. Expectations were for a 55.5 number, but the actual number came in at 59.8. That’s the strongest this number has been since 2005.
Economic focus of the week: will come on Wednesday afternoon when we get the minutes from the latest Fed meeting in September. Rates were not raised. But the announcement of the Fed beginning to unwind their balance sheet was announced. (I wrote about that announcement three weeks ago.) Will we learn anything new? We’ll find out at 2pm Wednesday afternoon.
Indicator focus: Fed minutes (Wed); September’s Producer Price Index (Thu); August’s business inventories, September’s Consumer Price Index, September’s retail sales, and the preliminary read on October’s consumer sentiment (Fri).
Have a great week,
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