Last Week:

Markets retreated last week. Concerns over the China trade deal and bad economic data brought markets lower.

The February jobs number missed badly. 180,000 jobs were expected, but only 20,000 came in. This especially a surprise given the ADP employment report which came in at 183,000 seemingly solidifying the expectations for a good number.

The U3 unemployment number dropped from 4.0% down to 3.8%.

Average hourly earnings rose from +0.1% in January up +0.4% in February.

Housing numbers: January housing startswere up +18.6%. Year-over-year starts are down -7.8%. December’s new home sales were up +3.7%. Sales are down -2.4% year-over-year.

My model’s status: Speed #1 (the most recent and responsive indicator) is positive. Speed 2 is positive. Speed 3 remains slightly positive. Speed 4 and 5 are in transition. Summary: two up arrows, and three neutral arrows.

This Week:

The focus of the week: It will come on January retail sales, which will be released on Monday morning at 8:30am. The December disappointed, coming in at -1.2%. Expectations are for a flat or 0% number. The expectation range is from -0.4% to +0.5%.

While earnings season is mostly over, there are a couple of retail companies of note reporting this week: Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Dollar General.

Indicator focus:  January’s retail sales, December’s business inventories (Mon); February’s consumer price index (Tue); January’s durable goods orders, February’s producer price index (Wed); January’s new home sales (Thu); and February’s industrial production (Fri).

Have a great week.


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