M Notes: Mon, 4-22

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  We experienced a third straight negative week for the S&P, as the Fed signals rate cuts aren’t coming anytime soon.  The Nasdaq experiences a sixth negative week in the last seven.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Down a lot, Down, Down, Down, and Down a lot.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $7.406 trillion (last week… down -$32 billion).  Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 trillion before the Pandemic.  

Fed’s Beige Book:   Overall, across the Country, economic activity was up slightly since February.  For the Cleveland District (the 4th out of 12), business activity increased modestly.  

Housing:  As mortgage rates top 7%, there’s a clear impact on Housing.  Starts were down -14.7% in March and are down-4.3% YOY.  Existing homes sale were down -4.3% in March and are also down -3.7% YOY.  

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 212,000.  The four-week average came in at 214,000.

Radio:  In the Fall of 2008, in the midst of some real Market uncertainty, Bill invited me to be on his show on a Friday morning.  And I’ve had the Privilege to have been a regular contributor ever since.  Life changes and I’ve decided to step back a bit.  But I am so Grateful to have shared Friday mornings with Bill for over 15 years.   It’s been an Honor.  Thank You Bill.

While I may be on occasionally in the future, here’s the link to my last regular visit on Bill’s show:   https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-4-19 .

Retail sales:   They were up +0.7% in March, beating the consensus expectation of +0.4%.  February Retail Sales were revised up from +0.6% up to +0.9%.  Retail Sales are up +4.0% YOY.    

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:   Inflation.  It will come on Friday morning when we get the update on the Personal Consumption & Expenditures Index.  The PCE is expected to climb +0.3% M/M; and move from +2.5% up a tick to +2.6% Y/Y.     

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week: Alphabet, AT&T, Boeing, Caterpillar, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, IBM, Intel, Lockheed Martin, Merck, Meta, Microsoft, PepsiCo, Philip Morris, Tesla, Texas Instruments, Union Pacific, UPS, and Verizon. 

Calendar:  New home sales (Tue); durable goods orders (Wed); the first read on Q1 GDP, and jobless claims (Thu); the PCE update (Fri).