M Notes: Mon, 4-15

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  They retreated for the second week in a row.

S&P roller coaster last week:  Down a touch, Up a touch, Down, Up, and Down significantly.  

Fed Balance Sheet:  $7.438 trillion (last week… down -$2 billion).  Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 trillion before the Pandemic. 

Fed Minutes:  The significant takeaway from the latest Minutes is the Fed feels they need to see more Evidence that Inflation is moving lower before they begin reducing their interest rate.   At the beginning of the year, many thought the Fed might lower their rate 6 out of the 8 meetings they have this year.  Now we may only see them lower their rate 1 or 2 meetings this year, and not anytime soon. 

Inflation:  As expected, the Consumer Price Index (the CPI) rose on Wednesday morning from 3.2% up to 3.5%.  Markets didn’t like that news.  On Thursday morning the Producer Price Index (the PPI) rose from 1.6% up to 2.1%.

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 211,000.  The four-week average came in at 214,000.

Radio:  Last week Bill & I chatted about the Fed Minutes, Inflation, and briefly about the new Earning Season.  Here’s the link: https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-4-12 .  Normally, you can hear Bill and I talk about Markets and the Economy most Friday mornings at 6:40am, 7:40am, and 8:40am on WTAM 1100 AM. 

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:   Will the U.S. economy continue to show strength in this week’s new economic data?

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Abbott Labs, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, Proctor & Gamble, Taiwan Semi, and UnitedHealth.  

Calendar:  Retail sales (Mon); housing starts, industrial production (Tue); Beige Book (Wed); existing home sales, and jobless claims (Thu).   

Taxes:  It’s Tax Day.  Your return from 2023 is due today.